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Luck

Grove's 17–10 all-play record is 2026's best so farⓘ

Luck = 2026 wins − expected wins (xW), so far.

Owner · 2026LuckW–LxWAll-playRobbedGifted
Grove+1.13–01.917–10 .63000
Anthony+0.62–11.413–14 .48100
Vince+0.42–11.614–13 .51901
Andrew+0.32–11.715–12 .55600
Evan+0.32–11.715–12 .55600
Mike−0.11–21.110–17 .37000
Bo/Doug−0.61–21.614–13 .51900
Greg−0.71–21.715–12 .55610
Goldberg−0.70–30.76–21 .22200
Jacob−0.81–21.816–11 .59300

Through week 3: Jacob is 6th; 1st in 16% of possible schedulesⓘ

% of possible schedules finishing in each place. vs exp. = expected − actual.

Early weeks: places mostly follow points scored.

1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10thvs exp.GroveGrove: 1st in 49% of possible schedules (the real place now)49Grove: 2nd in 17% of possible schedules17Grove: 3rd in 2% of possible schedules2Grove: 4th in <1% of possible schedules<1Grove: 5th in 6% of possible schedules6Grove: 6th in 14% of possible schedules14Grove: 7th in 5% of possible schedules5Grove: 8th in <1% of possible schedules<1Grove: 9th in 3% of possible schedules3Grove: 10th in 3% of possible schedules3+2.0JacobJacob: 1st in 16% of possible schedules16Jacob: 2nd in 26% of possible schedules26Jacob: 3rd in 19% of possible schedules19Jacob: 4th in 2% of possible schedules2Jacob: 5th in 3% of possible schedules3Jacob: 6th in 14% of possible schedules (the real place now)14Jacob: 7th in 16% of possible schedules16Jacob: 8th in 4% of possible schedules4Jacob: 9th in <1% of possible schedules<1Jacob: 10th in 0% of possible schedules−2.2VinceVince: 1st in 14% of possible schedules14Vince: 2nd in 26% of possible schedules (the real place now)26Vince: 3rd in 7% of possible schedules7Vince: 4th in 1% of possible schedules1Vince: 5th in 11% of possible schedules11Vince: 6th in 25% of possible schedules25Vince: 7th in 15% of possible schedules15Vince: 8th in 2% of possible schedules2Vince: 9th in 0% of possible schedulesVince: 10th in 0% of possible schedules+2.1AndrewAndrew: 1st in 9% of possible schedules9Andrew: 2nd in 16% of possible schedules16Andrew: 3rd in 25% of possible schedules (the real place now)25Andrew: 4th in 9% of possible schedules9Andrew: 5th in 2% of possible schedules2Andrew: 6th in 10% of possible schedules10Andrew: 7th in 17% of possible schedules17Andrew: 8th in 8% of possible schedules8Andrew: 9th in 2% of possible schedules2Andrew: 10th in 2% of possible schedules2+1.4GregGreg: 1st in <1% of possible schedules<1Greg: 2nd in 6% of possible schedules6Greg: 3rd in 30% of possible schedules30Greg: 4th in 28% of possible schedules28Greg: 5th in 6% of possible schedules6Greg: 6th in 5% of possible schedules5Greg: 7th in 13% of possible schedules (the real place now)13Greg: 8th in 8% of possible schedules8Greg: 9th in 2% of possible schedules2Greg: 10th in 1% of possible schedules1−2.4EvanEvan: 1st in 4% of possible schedules4Evan: 2nd in 3% of possible schedules3Evan: 3rd in 6% of possible schedules6Evan: 4th in 25% of possible schedules25Evan: 5th in 22% of possible schedules (the real place now)22Evan: 6th in 5% of possible schedules5Evan: 7th in 10% of possible schedules10Evan: 8th in 15% of possible schedules15Evan: 9th in 6% of possible schedules6Evan: 10th in 3% of possible schedules3+0.5AnthonyAnthony: 1st in 7% of possible schedules7Anthony: 2nd in 5% of possible schedules5Anthony: 3rd in 9% of possible schedules9Anthony: 4th in 18% of possible schedules (the real place now)18Anthony: 5th in 8% of possible schedules8Anthony: 6th in 4% of possible schedules4Anthony: 7th in 16% of possible schedules16Anthony: 8th in 17% of possible schedules17Anthony: 9th in 8% of possible schedules8Anthony: 10th in 8% of possible schedules8+1.8Bo/DougBo/Doug: 1st in 0% of possible schedulesBo/Doug: 2nd in <1% of possible schedules<1Bo/Doug: 3rd in 1% of possible schedules1Bo/Doug: 4th in 12% of possible schedules12Bo/Doug: 5th in 28% of possible schedules28Bo/Doug: 6th in 14% of possible schedules14Bo/Doug: 7th in 7% of possible schedules7Bo/Doug: 8th in 28% of possible schedules (the real place now)28Bo/Doug: 9th in 10% of possible schedules10Bo/Doug: 10th in <1% of possible schedules<1−1.6MikeMike: 1st in 0% of possible schedulesMike: 2nd in 0% of possible schedulesMike: 3rd in <1% of possible schedules<1Mike: 4th in 3% of possible schedules3Mike: 5th in 9% of possible schedules9Mike: 6th in 7% of possible schedules7Mike: 7th in 1% of possible schedules1Mike: 8th in 17% of possible schedules17Mike: 9th in 52% of possible schedules (the real place now)52Mike: 10th in 10% of possible schedules10−0.8GoldbergGoldberg: 1st in 1% of possible schedules1Goldberg: 2nd in <1% of possible schedules<1Goldberg: 3rd in <1% of possible schedules<1Goldberg: 4th in 2% of possible schedules2Goldberg: 5th in 6% of possible schedules6Goldberg: 6th in 3% of possible schedules3Goldberg: 7th in <1% of possible schedules<1Goldberg: 8th in 1% of possible schedules1Goldberg: 9th in 17% of possible schedules17Goldberg: 10th in 71% of possible schedules (the real place now)71−0.8
League matchup archive · weeks 1–3 of every ordered round robin, sampled

Grove was 2026's luckiest team: +1.1 wins over expectedⓘ

Actual wins against expected wins (from points scored); above the line is lucky.

00.511.522.53Expected wins00.511.522.53Actual winsGroveJacob
Owners 10
OwnersManagers · 10/10 shown
League matchup archive · actual and expected wins

Goldberg would have won 2 more in 2026 with Grove's scheduleⓘ

Each row's record under every column's schedule; green is an easier ride, brick a harder one.

AndrewAnthonyBo/DougEvanGoldbergGregGroveJacobMikeVinceAndrewAnthonyBo/DougEvanGoldbergGregGroveJacobMikeVince2W0-1-10-1+100-1-12W-10-1-1000-1+101W000+1+1+1+10002W-1-1000-1000+10W0+2+1+1+1+1+1+1001W+1+1+10-10-2-1-2-13W-10-20+1+1+200+21W+100+10+100001W-1-1-1-10-1-100+12W
Owners 10
OwnersManagers · 10/10 shown
League matchup archive · regular-season schedule replay

Greg's opponents played 18.0 Score+ above their usual level against them in 2026.ⓘ

Each team's Opponent Score+ (dot) = Schedule Strength (grey) + Opponent Luck (colour); 100 is average.

8090100110120averageGreg115.0Goldberg108.7Bo/Doug106.7Andrew104.4Vince102.6Jacob97.8Anthony95.3Evan91.7Mike89.3Grove88.6
Owners 10
OwnersManagers · 10/10 shown
Regular-season results · Opponent Score+, Schedule Strength, Opponent Luck