Forecast accuracy
Our backfilled game odds beat a coin flip and the standings
Player projections use each player's final pregame snapshot. Matchup odds use the saved forecast before the week's first kickoff.
Scored Oct 2, 9:35 AM ET ⓘ
Player projections (captured before kickoff)
Rostered players, including the bench. Sleeper's projected stats use this league's scoring; final points come from Yahoo. Missing projections are not graded.
| Position | Avg. miss | RMSE | Players × weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 4.59 | 5.58 | 145 |
| QB | 5.02 | 6.08 | 13 |
| RB | 4.65 | 5.39 | 43 |
| WR | 4.37 | 5.40 | 55 |
| TE | 6.20 | 7.42 | 16 |
| K | 2.45 | 2.62 | 7 |
| DEF | 3.92 | 4.84 | 11 |
Player projections (backfilled or unverified)
Rostered players, including the bench. Sleeper's projected stats use this league's scoring; final points come from Yahoo. Missing projections are not graded.
| Position | Avg. miss | RMSE | Players × weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 5.28 | 6.79 | 18,042 |
| QB | 6.30 | 7.88 | 1,784 |
| RB | 5.44 | 7.05 | 5,299 |
| WR | 5.53 | 7.00 | 6,280 |
| TE | 4.76 | 6.11 | 1,891 |
| K | 3.56 | 4.43 | 1,232 |
| DEF | 4.55 | 5.98 | 1,556 |
Game odds (backfilled or unverified)
Pregame win odds vs results.
- Our odds
- 0.242
- Coin flip
- 0.250
- Favourite by record
- 0.271
- Games called right
- 59%
Brier score over 617 games (lower is better; 0.250 is a coin flip). The favourite by record called 52% of the same games right. ⓘ
| Forecast band | Favourite's forecast | Favourites that won | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 55% | 56% | 341 |
| 60–70% | 64% | 61% | 196 |
| 70–80% | 74% | 71% | 68 |
| 80–90% | 83% | 50% | 10 |
| 90–100% | 92% | 0% | 2 |
Playoff and title odds (backfilled or unverified)
Preseason and midseason odds against who made the playoffs and who won.
| Odds | Ours | Everyone equal | Team-seasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason playoff odds | 0.237 | 0.240 | 80 |
| Preseason title odds | 0.088 | 0.090 | 80 |
| Midseason playoff odds | 0.152 | 0.240 | 80 |
| Midseason title odds | 0.081 | 0.090 | 80 |
Brier scores (lower is better). Preseason = the odds before week 1; midseason = the odds halfway through the regular season. ⓘ
| Forecast band | Forecast | Made the playoffs | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 10% | 5% | 22 |
| 20–40% | 33% | 33% | 61 |
| 40–60% | 47% | 47% | 58 |
| 60–80% | 68% | 85% | 13 |
| 80–100% | 92% | 83% | 6 |