Forecast accuracy
Our backfilled game odds beat a coin flip and the standings
Player projections use each player's final pregame snapshot. Matchup odds use the saved forecast before the week's first kickoff.
Scored Oct 2, 9:34 AM ET ⓘ
Player projections (captured before kickoff)
Rostered players, including the bench. Sleeper's projected stats use this league's scoring; final points come from Yahoo. Missing projections are not graded.
| Position | Avg. miss | RMSE | Players × weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 4.72 | 5.69 | 143 |
| QB | 5.20 | 6.20 | 13 |
| RB | 4.61 | 5.33 | 45 |
| WR | 4.27 | 5.33 | 54 |
| TE | 6.66 | 7.86 | 13 |
| K | 3.36 | 3.89 | 8 |
| DEF | 5.56 | 6.35 | 10 |
Player projections (backfilled or unverified)
Rostered players, including the bench. Sleeper's projected stats use this league's scoring; final points come from Yahoo. Missing projections are not graded.
| Position | Avg. miss | RMSE | Players × weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 5.28 | 6.74 | 2,607 |
| QB | 6.08 | 7.65 | 253 |
| RB | 5.50 | 7.13 | 788 |
| WR | 5.43 | 6.74 | 886 |
| TE | 4.83 | 6.29 | 273 |
| K | 3.90 | 4.89 | 180 |
| DEF | 4.60 | 6.03 | 227 |
Game odds (backfilled or unverified)
Pregame win odds vs results.
- Our odds
- 0.241
- Coin flip
- 0.250
- Favourite by record
- 0.287
- Games called right
- 54%
Brier score over 79 games (lower is better; 0.250 is a coin flip). The favourite by record called 49% of the same games right. ⓘ
| Forecast band | Favourite's forecast | Favourites that won | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 55% | 44% | 41 |
| 60–70% | 64% | 58% | 26 |
| 70–80% | 74% | 88% | 8 |
| 80–90% | 85% | 75% | 4 |
Playoff and title odds (backfilled or unverified)
Preseason and midseason odds against who made the playoffs and who won.
| Odds | Ours | Everyone equal | Team-seasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason playoff odds | 0.229 | 0.240 | 10 |
| Preseason title odds | 0.095 | 0.090 | 10 |
| Midseason playoff odds | 0.198 | 0.240 | 10 |
| Midseason title odds | 0.107 | 0.090 | 10 |
Brier scores (lower is better). Preseason = the odds before week 1; midseason = the odds halfway through the regular season. ⓘ
| Forecast band | Forecast | Made the playoffs | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 12% | 25% | 4 |
| 20–40% | 35% | 17% | 6 |
| 40–60% | 47% | 50% | 8 |
| 60–80% | 78% | 100% | 1 |
| 80–100% | 84% | 100% | 1 |